The greatest threat to an organisation is not always poor execution. Sometimes it is executing the wrong strategy exceptionally well.
Northern Ireland has no shortage of hard-working people. Across business, public services, politics and civic society, there are individuals who dedicate enormous energy to solving problems, managing crises and delivering results. These are valuable skills; no society can function without competent operators.
But operational competence and strategic thinking are not the same thing. The problem is that we often confuse the two.
The seen and the unseen
The nineteenth-century French economist Frédéric Bastiat described the concept of the seen and the unseen in his parable of the broken window. In the story, observers celebrate the economic activity created when a shopkeeper pays a glazier to repair the damage. What they see is the employment and income generated by the repair.
What they do not see is what the shopkeeper would have spent the money on had the window never been broken. The gain to the glazier is visible. The opportunities lost elsewhere are not.
Bastiat’s central insight was that good decision-making requires us to consider not only the immediate and visible effects of an action, but also the indirect and less obvious consequences. Strategic thinking is, in many ways, the ability to see the unseen.
It involves looking beyond present conditions and asking what opportunities are being missed, what risks are emerging and what future consequences today’s decisions may create.
Seeing beyond the visible
An individual can be exceptional at operational delivery while struggling to think strategically. They can understand every detail of how a system works, know exactly how to improve efficiency and consistently achieve short-term objectives. Yet they can become so immersed in day-to-day realities that they lose sight of the bigger picture.
Strategic thinkers are less involved in frontline delivery. Their focus is not on today’s problems, but tomorrow’s challenges. They look for emerging trends, changing circumstances and risks that others have not yet identified. They ask difficult questions about where an organisation, sector or society is heading and whether current approaches remain fit for purpose.
Consider a hospitality business. They may serve excellent food, provide exceptional customer service and keep costs under tight control. Existing customers are delighted, staff are committed, and operations run smoothly. On the surface, everything appears healthy.
But what if consumer tastes have changed? What if the products being offered no longer align with what most potential customers want? What if competitors are meeting emerging demand while the business continues to perfect a model that is becoming less relevant?
The operational thinker sees the quality of the food, the efficiency of the service and the satisfaction of existing customers. The strategic thinker sees the customers who are not coming through the door.
Similarly, imagine a healthcare service that delivers outstanding care. Patients report high levels of satisfaction and families speak positively about the experiences of their loved ones.
But what if the service consumes a disproportionate share of available resources? What if the same funding could support a different model of care that reaches more people, improves outcomes and reduces demand in the first place? What if maintaining the current system means denying support to others whose needs are equally significant?
The operational thinker sees the quality of the existing service. The strategic thinker sees the patients who are not receiving support because resources are tied up elsewhere.
Northern Ireland’s strategic deficit
Our politics naturally rewards operational or tactical thinking. Politicians face constant pressure to respond to daily events, manage media coverage and make decisions that maximise support in the next election cycle. The incentives often encourage short-term calculation over long-term planning.
A politician, focused solely on immediate public reaction, sees voters who may object to difficult decisions today. A strategic thinker sees future voters who will be frustrated by declining services, weaker economic performance and missed opportunities if those decisions are continually postponed.
Too often, our public discourse focuses on managing immediate crises instead of delivering long-term outcomes. Difficult reforms are frequently delayed because they carry short-term political costs. But the most significant achievements in our recent history have not been the product of tactical manoeuvring. They have been the result of a strategic vision.
A more prosperous Northern Ireland will not emerge by accident. A more effective health service will not appear simply because existing systems are managed more efficiently. Higher productivity, stronger public services, and improved living standards will require difficult choices, long-term planning and a willingness to challenge established assumptions.
Northern Ireland has many talented operators. It has many capable tacticians. What it lacks are enough people willing to think beyond the immediate crisis, the next election cycle or the constraints of the moment.
A successful society needs people who can deliver effectively today, but it also needs people who can anticipate the opportunities and risks of tomorrow.
We have plenty of the former. What we need is more of the latter.