The Union’s security and defence dividend

04/11/2026

One of the most famous fables written by Aesop in sixth century BCE Greece tells of an elderly man despairing at his sons incessantly quarrelling. He hands each of them a tied bundle of sticks to snap, and each fail. He then unties the rope holding them together, and hands each son one of the sticks to snap, which they do effortlessly. 

Some lessons are timeless and some of even the oldest parables remain relevant to contemporary statecraft; including The Old Man and His Sons, which teaches that unity and a collective defence is unbreakable – whereas separate, isolated entities are broken with ease. The United Kingdom, greater than just the sum of its four constituent nations, is no exception. Northern Ireland is an integral element to this equation; it contributes to UK national security and defence posture at-large just as much as it benefits from it itself. 

As security threats to both the wider UK and Northern Ireland specifically proliferate as the global security landscape continues to deteriorate in the backdrop of a return to great power competition and political hyperpolarisation, the country’s place in the UK is only becoming even more important.

From paramilitaries to Russian sub-threshold subversion, Northern Ireland sits at the intersection of state- and non-state actor security challenges – and as part of the Union; is well-placed to meet them. 

Security at home

At home, Northern Ireland continues to benefit from its long-standing integration into the highly capable and lucratively funded UK domestic security apparatus. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) works closely with MI5 to monitor and contain domestic security threats. This joint framework under the St. Andrews Agreement unlocks abundant resources and expertise for maintaining functioning peace.

Effectively addressing the intermittent residual unrest from The Troubles and the interwoven, self-reinforcing threats of paramilitarism and organised, geographically disparate crime networks necessitate more holistic and seasoned capabilities that the UK alone offers. 

The high level of trust in the Police Service transcending political divides in Northern Ireland is a testament to the effectiveness of the PSNI-MI5 framework in navigating a uniquely complex security landscape. 

It is important to emphasise that it is not a paternalistic relationship between MI5 and the PSNI by any means but a symbiotic one rooted in transparency and consent to meet mutual security objectives. Contrary to charges often made by some groups, it is based on cooperation, not condescension or control.

All Security Service intelligence relating to terrorist threats in Northern Ireland is made available to the PSNI, it is always kept apprised of any counterterrorism operations, and evaluations of threat levels are a joint responsibility. MI5 has zero authority to unilaterally arrest suspects; thus, enforcement and therefore control has been institutionalised with the PSNI.

Both organisations remain subject to regular independent assessment to ensure compliance. The Security Services provide the PSNI with extensive resources and enabling capabilities without overstepping their remit.

The defence dividend

Looking outwardly, Northern Ireland being part of the UK (a leading NATO member and a nuclear-armed P5 state), offers it an insulating layer of protection against the increasingly malign behaviour of Russia in its immediate vicinity, who has prioritised bolstering its Arctic and Northern Atlantic capabilities.

The salience of the GIUK Gap (the naval chokehold between Greenland, Iceland and the UK) is growing rapidly in Allied strategic calculus as the most important opportunity to prevent Atlantic breakouts and monitor (using sonar arrays and surveillance aircraft) Russia’s Northern Fleet – particularly its submarines – operating out of its foremost base at Severomorsk.

“Northern Ireland is shielded by the powerful UK defence infrastructure and the world-leading intelligence, counterespionage and deterrence capabilities that constitute it.”

– Jack Duncan

This shines a spotlight on Northern Ireland’s strategic geography. It is key to hosting expanded NATO forward-operating capabilities for GIUK Gap operations, but equally in acting as a bulwark against Russian espionage in Irish waters. In particular, protecting undersea fibre optic cables which account for over 90% of the UK’s data traffic and trillions of pounds in daily transactions. 75% of those transatlantic cables on which the UK is so reliant run through Irish waters, making Northern Ireland an elemental part of the UK’s Atlantic Bastion Programme, which seeks to protect that very infrastructure. 

In an age of hybrid warfare where sub-threshold and asymmetrical subversion – from critical seabed cable severance to sensitive site arson and attempted airport bombings – is becoming a trademark Kremlin strategy to destabilise Europe, Northern Ireland is shielded by the powerful UK defence infrastructure and the world-leading intelligence, counterespionage and deterrence capabilities that constitute it in ensuring it is insulated from these incidents to the greatest possible degree. 

Northern Ireland reaps economic as well as security dividends as part of a thriving British defence industry which supports some 9,000 jobs and generates £2.2 billion in activity.

Belfast hosts key projects like Thales’ lightweight multirole missile manufacturing, Harland and Wolff’s shipbuilding and myriad defence-integrated AI start-ups, which offer unique skills opportunities and hundreds of new jobs. April 2026 saw the launch of the Northern Ireland Defence Growth Deal, a new £50 million partnership between the Ministry of Defence and Queen’s University Belfast to invest in defence technology start-ups. 

An insecure alternative

Juxtaposed to Northern Ireland’s strategic importance in the UK and the protection and investment that affords it, is the Republic of Ireland’s neutrality – coupled with a long-standing stubborn refusal to pull its weight in defence expenditure to uphold regional security. The Republic spends just 0.22% of its GDP on defence; 58% of which goes on personnel, leaving minimal investment for capabilities modernisation. That is the lowest in the EU.

To compensate for this gap in Irish military capacity and political will, the UK already extends various functions to the Republic (to the point that Ireland asks the UK to provide targeted air defence and maritime support when it hosts EU summits), which are only likely to become more demanding as the regional security situation deteriorates in the face of growing Russian activity. 

The stark contrast in security capabilities and attitudes to that first duty of government between the UK and Ireland alongside the highly effective domestic security apparatus afforded by pan-UK collaboration must surely be a clear indicator to Northern Ireland that it is immeasurably more secure within the United Kingdom at a precarious moment. As Aesop would frame it; Northern Ireland in the UK is part of that indestructible bundle of sticks.

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Jack Duncan

Jack works as a Researcher at the Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research (CHACR), the British Army’s official think tank based at Sandhurst and serves as an Analyst on the UK Politics Desk at Polis Analysis.

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